The weekly initial jobless claims jumped to 377,000 this week, which is still in the very good range. It has jumped up and down throughout January, which is typical, because of all the seasonal hiring, then laying off. But even during this volatile period, the highest it reached was 402,000. Given all of this, we should expect a healthy report next Friday when the monthly unemployment rate is released. Over the past year or so, when the claims have consistently remained at or below the 400,000-range, the economy has average more than 200,000 private-sector jobs a month. So we are still good to go on the emerging jobs front. I still worry about oil prices and Europe and other things we can't anticipate.
Early last year, the economy seemed to be picking up, and it was - until the Japanese tsunami almost took out one of the world's most important economies, that crazy debt ceiling debate erupted, the debt crisis in the euro zone peaked and the Arab Spring pushed up oil prices - and subsequently gas prices - really high, really fast and for a really long time, which was a horrible trifecta.
If we don't have those types of shocks this year, the economy can continue to strengthen. But, of course, we don't know if that will or won't happen again. Stay tuned.
